Bressay Field Reserves

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Imports are likely to need to increase now as overall production decline is accelerating again and demand appears to be increasing. UK PRODUCTION PROJECTIONSPreviously I’d made an estimate of future production based on simple, assumed decline curves and overall reserves.

The steepness of the curves, especially for natural gas, was striking so I have tried to get some better data using Environmental Statements, which each project is required to submit to the UKOGA as part of the development approval process.

UK C&CIt was expected by many, me included but more importantly UKOGA and a couple of the bigger oil and gas consultancies, that UK offshore oil production would increase significantly from 2017 to exceed 1000 kbpd for the yearly average in 2018. March production was 934 kbpd, down 7 percent m-o-m and 2 percent y-o-y (but up 0.8 percent for the first quarter compared with 2017).

It’s possible that some fields have not reported but those showing zero for the month are not big producers.

The production profiles presented in the applications are usually for P10 cases, so actual decline will be steeper than shown, for example this year’s drop off in Buzzard was actually not predicted until next year, even in their P50 case (which was presented as part of the Buzzard II development application), and if the new projects perform as well as Laggan or Scolty & Crathes then the decline will be very quick indeed.

(Click to enlarge)(Click to enlarge)I have included all known discoveries that look commercial with reasonable oil prices but have not included any allowance for future discoveries, though there aren’t many of those at the moment.

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With smaller players taking over there is sometimes a short-term production increase from mature fields, but it also tends to signify there are fewer large projects to come.

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